Why Americans Are Leaving: The Real Numbers Behind the Exodus

Let's start with what we know and what we don't, because the data is surprisingly incomplete.

What the government tracks: The US has no exit tracking system for citizens. Unlike most countries, there's no formal process when an American moves abroad. You don't file a form. You don't notify anyone (unless you're renouncing citizenship, which is a different and much rarer thing). This means all estimates of Americans abroad are exactly that -- estimates.

The State Department's number: 9 million US citizens living abroad as of 2025. This is extrapolated from consular registrations, tax filings, and embassy estimates. The real number is almost certainly higher because many expats never register with their embassy.

The IRS's number: In 2023, approximately 4.4 million US tax returns were filed from foreign addresses, up from 3.2 million in 2016. This undercounts because many expats use US addresses for filing (parents' address, mail forwarding services).

The Census Bureau's gap: The Census Bureau doesn't count Americans living abroad. At all. The decennial census and the American Community Survey only cover people living in the 50 states, DC, and territories. Nine million people -- 2.7% of US citizens -- are simply invisible to the country's primary data collection system.

Passport data as a proxy: 24.5 million passport applications were processed in fiscal year 2024, versus 22.2 million in 2023 and 17 million pre-pandemic (2019). First-time passport applications -- a better indicator of people who hadn't previously traveled and are now considering it -- rose 28% from 2019 to 2024.

Renunciation data: 5,315 Americans formally renounced their citizenship in 2023, up from 1,027 in 2013. This is the nuclear option -- giving up your passport entirely -- and while the absolute numbers are small, the tenfold increase over a decade is significant. The primary driver: FATCA compliance costs. Banks abroad refuse American customers, and the reporting burden of maintaining US citizenship while living abroad permanently has become a genuine quality-of-life issue.

The bottom line: The trend is unmistakable. Whether the real number is 9 million or 12 million, it's growing by hundreds of thousands per year, and the rate of growth is accelerating.

The most-cited reason Americans give for considering a move abroad isn't political. It's medical bills.

The numbers that explain everything:

• Average annual healthcare spending per capita in the US: $13,493 (2024)
• Average in Germany: $7,383
• Average in Spain: $3,718
• Average in Portugal: $3,343
• Average in Mexico: $1,181
• Average in Thailand: $892

Americans spend more on healthcare than any country on Earth -- roughly twice the OECD average -- and get mediocre outcomes for it. US life expectancy (77.5 years) ranks 46th globally, behind Costa Rica, Chile, and Cuba. Infant mortality is higher than in any other developed nation.

Medical bankruptcy: An estimated 530,000 families file for bankruptcy annually due to medical debt, making it the leading cause of personal bankruptcy in America. This doesn't happen in other developed countries because it literally can't -- universal healthcare systems prevent it.

The expat math: A retired American couple in their 60s spending $25,000/year on Medicare premiums, supplements, copays, and prescriptions can move to Spain, join the public healthcare system for EUR 3,768/year total ($4,145), add a private supplement for EUR 2,400/year ($2,640), and still save over $18,000 annually -- while getting healthcare that's rated higher by the WHO.

The insulin example: A vial of Humalog insulin costs $274 in the US (list price, before insurance negotiations). The same vial costs $21 in Canada, $11 in France, and $8 in Mexico. For a diabetic American without good insurance, the annual cost difference between living in the US and living abroad can exceed $10,000 on this single medication.

This isn't about ideology. It's arithmetic. And increasingly, Americans are doing the math.

The American housing market has become a generational wealth divider that's pushing people not just out of cities, but out of the country.

The affordability crisis in numbers:

• Median US home price (2025): $412,000
• Median household income: $80,610
• Price-to-income ratio: 5.1x (the traditional "affordable" threshold is 3.0x)
• Average 30-year mortgage rate (2025): 6.8%
• Monthly payment on median home (20% down): $2,150
• Percentage of income for median earner: 32% (above the 28% stress threshold)

In major metros, it's worse:

• San Francisco: Median home $1.3M. Price-to-income ratio: 9.8x
• Los Angeles: Median home $950K. Ratio: 8.2x
• New York: Median home $780K. Ratio: 7.1x
• Austin: Median home $510K. Ratio: 5.8x
• Miami: Median home $580K. Ratio: 7.0x

The expat comparison: A two-bedroom apartment in central Lisbon costs approximately EUR 280,000 ($308,000). In Valencia, EUR 200,000 ($220,000). In Medellín, $120,000. In Bangkok, $150,000. In Porto, EUR 220,000 ($242,000). These are desirable neighborhoods in desirable cities -- not exurban compromises.

The rental story is equally stark:

• Average 1-bedroom rent in Manhattan: $3,800/month
• Average 1-bedroom rent in central Lisbon: $1,300/month
• Average 1-bedroom rent in central Madrid: $1,200/month
• Average 1-bedroom rent in central Bangkok: $600/month
• Average 1-bedroom rent in central Medellín: $500/month

The remote work twist: If you earn a US salary and spend it in a foreign housing market, you're not just saving money -- you're living better. A software engineer earning $120,000 remotely can afford a lifestyle in Barcelona or Lisbon that would require $250,000+ in San Francisco: walkable neighborhood, good apartment, restaurants, travel, savings. The purchasing power arbitrage is enormous, and it's the core economic driver behind the digital nomad movement.

We can't pretend this isn't a factor, even though it's the hardest to quantify.

The survey data: A 2024 Gallup poll found that 21% of Americans would move to another country if they could -- the highest number recorded since Gallup began asking the question in 2001. Among adults under 35, the number was 36%. Among those identifying as politically liberal, 42%. Among those identifying as conservative, 12%.

A separate Monmouth University poll found that 42% of Americans describe themselves as "exhausted" by politics, up from 27% in 2016. This exhaustion cuts across party lines.

What expats actually say: In surveys of Americans living abroad, political environment ranks as the third most common reason for leaving (behind cost of living and quality of life). But the nature of the political complaint has shifted. In the 2000s, it was ideological: people left because they opposed specific policies. In the 2020s, it's more atmospheric: people leave because they're tired of the anger, the division, the sense that every aspect of daily life has become politicized.

As one American in Lisbon told the New York Times in 2024: "I didn't leave because of who won the election. I left because I was tired of every conversation being about the election."

The safety dimension: Gun violence is a push factor that's nearly impossible to discuss without political framing, but the data is straightforward. The US had 48,204 gun deaths in 2022 (including suicides). No other high-income country comes close. For parents of school-age children, the prevalence of school shootings -- 394 incidents since 2013 according to Education Week -- has made "safety" a factor in the relocation calculus in a way it wasn't a generation ago.

Americans who move to Spain, Portugal, Japan, or New Zealand cite the simple ability to walk home at night without fear, send their kids to school without active shooter drills, and exist in public spaces without anxiety as a quality-of-life improvement that's hard to put a dollar figure on.

The important caveat: Political emigration is not new, and it's not one-directional. Americans have always moved abroad for political reasons -- draft dodgers to Canada in the 1960s, tax exiles to Switzerland in the 1990s. What's different now is the scale, the demographic breadth, and the fact that it's driven less by opposition to specific policies and more by a general exhaustion with the political environment itself.

The single biggest structural change enabling American emigration isn't any push factor -- it's the technological and cultural transformation that made location-independent work normal.

The numbers:

• 35% of US workers with remote-compatible jobs work remotely full-time (2025, Pew Research)
• 41% work hybrid (some days remote, some in office)
• 14% of remote workers have worked from a different country than their employer's base in the past year (Upwork Global Work Survey)
• Average salary premium for US-based remote work vs. local salary in popular expat destinations: 2.5-5x

What changed: Before 2020, working remotely from another country was theoretically possible but practically rare. It required explicit employer permission, unusual trust, and a willingness to work odd hours. The pandemic didn't just normalize remote work -- it normalized asynchronous remote work, where time zone differences are manageable because not every interaction requires real-time participation.

The arbitrage that makes it work: An American product manager earning $140,000 remotely spends roughly $5,000-$6,000/month to live in a US city after taxes, housing, healthcare, and basics. Move to Valencia, Spain, and total monthly costs drop to $2,500-$3,500 -- with arguably better quality of life. That's $24,000-$36,000 per year in additional savings or disposable income, purely from geographic arbitrage.

This isn't a gap that closes with raises or promotions. A 20% raise in San Francisco buys less marginal quality of life than simply moving to a city where your existing salary is worth twice as much.

The employer response: Initially, companies resisted. By 2025, many have embraced it -- some enthusiastically, some reluctantly. Companies like Airbnb, Spotify, and Shopify have explicit "work from anywhere" policies. Others implement geographic pay adjustments (reducing salary by 10-20% for lower-cost locations), which still leaves employees ahead after cost-of-living savings.

The freelance and contractor angle: 65 million Americans freelanced in 2024 (Upwork estimate). For freelancers, there's no employer to ask permission from. If your clients are digital and your deliverables are digital, your physical location is irrelevant. The growth of platforms like Upwork, Toptal, and Fiverr has created an infrastructure for location-independent income that didn't exist 15 years ago.

The supply side of this equation matters too. Countries have realized that American remote workers are economic gold: they earn foreign income, spend it locally, don't compete for local jobs, and tend to be educated, healthy, and relatively wealthy.

The visa explosion:

• 2019: 2 countries had dedicated digital nomad visas
• 2022: 25 countries
• 2024: 40+ countries
• 2026: 50+ countries and counting

The pace of new programs hasn't slowed. In 2025 alone, South Africa, Japan, and Italy launched or expanded digital nomad visa programs. Countries are actively competing for remote workers with lower income thresholds, better tax treatment, and faster processing.

Why countries want you: The economics are simple. A remote worker earning $80,000 from a US employer and spending $30,000 locally is injecting $30,000 into the local economy without taking a job from a local worker, without using unemployment benefits, and often without requiring education or infrastructure investment. Multiply that by thousands of workers and you have a meaningful GDP contribution with almost zero government cost.

Portugal's NHR program (2009-2023) is the case study. By offering a 0% tax rate on foreign pensions and a 20% flat rate on qualifying professional income, Portugal attracted an estimated 74,000 new residents who invested billions in property, restaurants, services, and local businesses. The program was too successful -- it contributed to a housing affordability crisis that forced the government to end it. But the economic impact was undeniable.

Retirement visa programs: For older Americans, retirement visas in countries like Panama ($1,000/month pension), Ecuador ($1,375/month), Mexico ($2,500/month), and Thailand ($1,800/month from savings) offer legal residency with minimal requirements. These programs have existed for decades but are seeing unprecedented interest as the cost of retiring in the US becomes prohibitive for middle-class Americans.

The average American needs $1.46 million in savings to retire comfortably in the US, according to Northwestern Mutual's 2024 survey. The median 401(k) balance for Americans 55-64 is $207,874. That gap -- between what you need and what you have -- closes dramatically when you retire in a country where $2,000/month provides a comfortable lifestyle.

The American expat population is more diverse than the stereotypes suggest. It's not all tech bros in Bali or retirees in Mexico.

By age:

• 25-34: The largest and fastest-growing segment. Digital nomads, remote workers, young professionals seeking international experience. Many have no plan to return. This group grew 42% between 2019 and 2024 by State Department estimates.
• 35-54: The second-largest group. Families seeking better quality of life, lower costs, or international education for children. Often remote workers or small business owners.
• 55-64: Pre-retirees scouting locations. Many buy property abroad 5-10 years before fully relocating.
• 65+: Retirees. Still the most visible group because they stay permanently and concentrate in specific communities (San Miguel de Allende, Algarve, Chiang Mai).

By income: The middle class is the surprising center of gravity. Americans earning $60,000-$150,000 -- enough to live comfortably in the US but not enough to build wealth -- are the demographic most responsive to geographic arbitrage. At $80,000, you're comfortable but not saving in Austin. At $80,000 in Lisbon, you're saving $2,000/month.

High earners ($200,000+) also move, but for different reasons: tax optimization, lifestyle, international business. The ultra-wealthy have always been mobile; what's new is that the middle class now has the same option.

By profession: Tech dominates but doesn't monopolize. Software engineers, product managers, designers, and data scientists are the largest professional group. But teachers at international schools, healthcare workers (nurses are in demand globally), writers, consultants, marketing professionals, and financial advisors are all well-represented.

By family status: Single individuals move most easily, but families are a growing segment. The "worldschooling" movement -- families that travel and educate children internationally -- has grown from a niche concept to a community with tens of thousands of families.

By race and ethnicity: Black Americans make up a disproportionately growing share of expats, particularly to countries with less visible racial tension. Ghana's "Year of Return" program (2019) attracted thousands of African American visitors and hundreds of permanent relocators. Mexico City, Lisbon, and London have growing Black American expat communities. The conversation about racial climate as an emigration factor is increasingly mainstream.

Based on State Department data, IRS filings, and expat community surveys, here's where Americans are actually moving -- not where travel bloggers say they should.

Tier 1: The Big Four (over 500,000 Americans each)

1. Mexico — ~1.6 million Americans, by far the largest expat population. Proximity, cost of living, and cultural familiarity drive it. Mexico City, San Miguel de Allende, Lake Chapala, Puerto Vallarta, and Merida are the major hubs.
2. Canada — ~1 million Americans. The easiest move linguistically and culturally, though not the cheapest. Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal dominate.
3. United Kingdom — ~750,000 Americans. London is the hub, but Brexit has made visas harder. Primarily corporate transferees and finance/tech workers.
4. Germany — ~600,000 Americans. Strong economy, excellent quality of life, well-organized immigration system. Berlin and Munich are the main hubs.

Tier 2: The Surging Destinations (100,000-500,000) 5. Israel — ~300,000 (heavily influenced by dual citizenship and Birthright programs) 6. South Korea — ~250,000 (military presence inflates this; civilian expat community is growing) 7. France — ~200,000 Americans. Paris, Lyon, and the south of France. 8. Japan — ~200,000. Tokyo and Osaka. Growing tech and English-teaching communities. 9. Spain — ~180,000 and growing fast. Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Malaga. 10. Australia — ~150,000. Sydney and Melbourne dominate.

Tier 3: The Fastest-Growing (under 100,000 but accelerating) 11. Portugal — ~60,000 and doubled since 2019. Lisbon, Porto, Algarve. 12. Colombia — ~50,000. Medellín has become the default digital nomad city in Latin America. 13. Thailand — ~50,000. Bangkok and Chiang Mai for working-age; retirement communities in Phuket and Hua Hin. 14. Costa Rica — ~40,000. Stable, safe, and well-established retirement infrastructure. 15. Panama — ~30,000. Tax advantages, dollar economy, the Pensionado visa.

The trend within the trend: The fastest growth isn't in the traditional expat havens. It's in mid-tier cities that offer the best cost-of-living-to-quality-of-life ratio: Valencia over Barcelona, Medellín over Bogotá, Chiang Mai over Bangkok, Porto over Lisbon. As the first wave of Americans drove up prices in headline cities, the second wave is finding the next tier of value.

For balance and honesty, let's acknowledge the forces that keep most Americans in the US -- even those who fantasize about leaving.

Family ties. This is the number one reason people who want to leave don't. Aging parents, young grandchildren, siblings, lifelong friends -- the emotional infrastructure of your life is not portable. Video calls help but don't replace Sunday dinner. This is real, and no amount of cost-of-living arbitrage compensates for missing your mother's 80th birthday.

Career gravity. Despite remote work, many industries still reward physical presence. Law, medicine, finance, government, construction, manufacturing -- most of the American economy requires being in a specific place. Even in tech, the highest-paying jobs (staff engineer at FAANG, VP at a startup) still correlate with proximity to headquarters.

Language barriers. The honest truth is that most Americans are monolingual, and the prospect of navigating legal, medical, and bureaucratic systems in another language is daunting. This is a solvable problem (many expat destinations are English-accessible), but it feels insurmountable from a distance.

The known vs. the unknown. Behavioral economics teaches us that people overvalue what they have and undervalue what they might gain. The certain comforts of your current life -- your dentist who knows your teeth, your grocery store where you know every aisle, your commute that's automatic -- carry more psychological weight than the theoretical benefits of a move abroad.

Legal and financial complexity. Maintaining US tax obligations, managing foreign bank accounts, navigating visa renewals, understanding foreign property law -- the administrative burden of living abroad is not trivial. It's manageable, but it's a real ongoing cost in time and mental energy.

The return rate. An estimated 30-40% of Americans who move abroad return to the US within five years. The most common reasons: homesickness, family obligations, career opportunities, and the expiration of initial enthusiasm. Moving abroad is not a permanent solution to whatever you're running from -- but for the 60-70% who stay, it's a permanent upgrade to what they're running toward.

The American expat wave isn't a crisis. It's a market signal.

When 9 million citizens choose to live elsewhere, they're voting with their feet on the value proposition of American life. The signal isn't that America is terrible -- it's that the gap between what America costs and what America delivers has widened to the point where rational, middle-class people are finding better deals elsewhere.

Healthcare that costs 3x the developed-world average and delivers below-average outcomes. Housing that requires 6-10x annual income in any desirable city. An education system that saddles graduates with $1.75 trillion in collective debt. A retirement system that expects individuals to accumulate $1.5 million through private savings. These aren't political opinions -- they're structural features of American life that push people to explore alternatives.

The pull factors are equally structural. Remote work didn't create a temporary fad; it created a permanent arbitrage opportunity. Countries aren't issuing digital nomad visas as experiments; they're building immigration pipelines to capture a growing global workforce. The infrastructure for living abroad -- international banking, expat tax services, global health insurance, flight networks -- has never been more developed.

For individuals considering the move: The data supports you. The costs are lower, the healthcare is better, the quality of life is measurably improved for most Americans who make the transition. The first year is hard -- bureaucracy, loneliness, adjustment. Years two through twenty are where the return on investment compounds.

For the US: The outflow of educated, middle-class, working-age citizens is a policy problem that no one is addressing. Countries around the world are actively competing for American talent and American spending power. The US is not competing to retain it. This is an asymmetry that, over decades, has consequences.

Nine million Americans didn't all make a mistake. They made a calculation. And the numbers worked out.